Election Day Prediction Update

Election day is finally upon us and as the nation goes to the polls we thought we’d revisit our initial analysis and see the impact trends within the last week have had on our predicted results…

It’s been a turbulent week. Perhaps the most turbulent in the history of electoral campaigning. From the terrible events in London Bridge, which led to ferocious exchanges on policing numbers, all the way through to the increased scrutiny on the ‘Special Relationship’ after Trump’s remarks on the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan. It’s clear the battlefield has changed, and drastically at that.

As such, we decided to publish an update on our prediction.

Some slight changes have been made to the formula given how close we are to the deadline. The weighting for undecided voters has been reduced, reflecting the fact that many will have settled for a side, with greater importance instead being attributed towards the last seven days of search behavior.

Based on current search data here’s what we are now predicting will be the final results of the General Election:

Conservative: 337
Labour: 228
Liberal Democrats: 17
SNP: 42
UKIP: 4
Other: 22

So there you have it, on election day search data is telling us that the Conservatives will retain their majority. Whatever the result, make sure you have your say and get out and vote!