From Dates to Data: NMPi’s Love Island Prediction 2019

Summer is finally here and there’s only one thing that means: Love Island is back on the telly! That’s right: 3 weeks ago, 12  intelligent – but most importantly – really good looking young individuals, dropped their Instagram-heavy lives for 8 weeks of non-stop tan and drama in the  Love Island villa.

It’s hard to believe we’re already 3 weeks into this year’s love story, but bets are already on as to who will be the lucky couple to take home the prize this year. We decided to use what we know best – data – to see if we can predict which couple will survive the summer of love and be crowned the winner of Love Island 2019.

We can’t however, predict who will still be together 6 months down the line…

State of Affairs and Methodology

Before we dive into our data analysis, let’s take a quick snapshot of the current state of affairs in the villa (at the time of writing). For those of you not up to date, come back in 15 hours when you’ve caught up!

We have 14 contestants currently in the villa: 4 couples and 6 single contestants. These couples, as of the 21st of June are:

  • Amy & Curtis
  • Amber & Michael
  • Molly-Mae & Tommy
  • Yewande & Danny

Our source for these predictions is Twitter. We’ve pulled apart each couple’s Twitter profiles to compare how many tweets they have, their average reach, and their value in the eyes of the general public. The bigger the gap within the couple, or the smaller the number, the lower the compatibility score.

With this in mind, we popped on our investigative sunglasses and started crunching the numbers. Starting with couple number one:

Amy & Curtis

Ever since Curtis entered the villa in week 1, he and Amy have hit it off like a house on fire. Both passionate about musicals, theatre and ballroom dancing, they are a flamboyant couple often called the “Mum and Dad” of the villa by other contestants. But what do the numbers say?

Curtis comes in with a Twitter reach of just under 11 million, which doesn’t hold a candle to the 27 million that Amy reaches. Given the huge gap between them, it’s almost surprising that their Tweets/contributor ratio and value are so similar. Amy comes in with a Tweets/contributor ratio of 2.17 and a value of £171k. while Curtis has a ratio of 2.1 and a value of £177k.

Taking this into account using our in-house algorithms this couple takes home a whopping compatibility score.

COMPATIBILITY SCORE: 76.89

Amber & Michael

These two had a slow start in the villa, starting off as friends. As the days went on Michael turned up the heat until Amber finally admitted that she had caught feelings too. 

Turning to the numbers, Amber pulls in a reach of 10.5 million on Twitter, while Michael only manages 5.5 million. Already a poorer start than our first couple. The difference in Tweets/contributor ratio and value is also more apparent, with Amber at 2.45 and $108k, and Michael 1.66 and $52k respectively. Adding it all together, it looks like bad news for Amber and Michael.

COMPATIBILITY SCORE: 3.69

Molly-Mae & Tommy

It’s not been a smooth ride for these lovebirds, with Tommy being torn between Lucie & Molly-Mae in week 1. It was only because Lucie chose Joe that Molly-Mae & Tommy ended up together. Then, when mega toe-stepper Maura entered the villa, Tommy was once again caught between two girls. However, he chose to re-couple with Molly-Mae, to the utmost joy from the UK public.

But how are these two looking now they are (supposedly) dedicated to each other? Molly-Mae brings home a reach of 8 million, Tommy only 7 million. This is a much smaller reach than the other two couples, which is surprising given all the drama focused around them so far. Looking at our other metrics, Molly-Mae has a Tweets/contributors score of 2.31 and a value of $139k. Tommy on the other hand only hits 1.37 and $35.5k for value.

It’s worth noting here that Tommy is the most followed contestant on Instagram so far – over 1 million! – but in terms of compatibility, they’re very middle of the road. 

COMPATIBILITY SCORE: 34.69

Yewande & Danny

Last but not least, scientist Yewande & model Danny. Yewande was having a hard time of finding love in the villa, so when Danny entered, the Islanders – and indeed the whole of the UK – rejoiced. This thrill was short lived with fractures already showing in the couple. New girl Arabella has swept Danny off on a date, leaving Yewande fighting with her feelings, and for her man.

Yewande achieves a Twitter reach of 1.5 million, and Danny 2.7 million – the lowest of any of our couples. Looking at the additional metrics, Yewande gets a Twitter/contributor score of 1.39 and a value of $5.6k while Danny is looking at a ratio of 1.15 and a value of $15k. The outlook is certainly bleak.

The result from our compatibility algorithm backs up what we’re dreading: a pretty damning score. Looks like these two would have better luck finding love somewhere else…

COMPATIBILITY SCORE: 1.34

Our Prediction

So that’s it, Amy & Curtis have topped our couple prediction and they are the data and dating front runners of Love Island 2019!

But, as we’ve said, a lot can change in 5 weeks – so we’ll be following up in a few weeks with some updated predictions.

Will Amy & Curtis stay strong? Will Molly-Mae & Tommy do bits? Will Yewande & Danny ever break up? Only time will tell. We’ll see you back here in a few weeks!